The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC on May 1, 2026 to pump more oil on its own terms. The move signals a significant shift in the global oil landscape.
The UAE currently produces about 3.2 to 3.6 million barrels per day under OPEC’s quotas. However, it holds spare capacity of nearly 4.8 million barrels per day. This departure removes one of the few OPEC members with meaningful spare capacity.
Saudi Arabia has traditionally managed oil prices by cutting its own production and enforcing discipline across the group. The UAE’s exit highlights growing frustrations with OPEC’s quota system and exposes rifts with Riyadh.
The UAE plans to redirect about 1.8 million barrels per day to its Fujairah port via a pipeline running at maximum capacity. This decision comes amid a global energy crisis resulting from the ongoing Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Jorge Leon, an industry analyst, noted, “Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group’s hands.” Meanwhile, Suhail Al Mazrouei stated, “The world needs more energy. The world needs more resources, and [the] UAE wanted to be unconstrained by any groups.”
The long-term impact of this exit on global oil prices is unclear. Observers speculate that it may lead to increased market volatility and a potential price war with Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, Michael Tamvakis warned that this decision challenges Saudi authority within OPEC and could provoke retaliatory measures. Jeff Colgan mentioned that there is a possibility for OPEC’s structure to face existential risks over time.
The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 through Abu Dhabi and is not the first member to leave; Qatar exited in 2019. After the UAE’s departure, only 11 members will remain in OPEC.
